In 1951, Nehru sought the Ford Foundation’s assistance in charting a course for India’s development. In subsequent years, the Ford Foundation added family planning, public administration, urban planning and the training of economists to its India portfolio.
In 1952, Nehru initiated a nationwide family planning programme, the first of its kind in the world, for which he sought assistance from Western governments, intergovernmental agencies and philanthropic foundations.
Despite initial reluctance, especially given the Catholic stance on birth control, Nehru’s persistence eventually led to substantial international support and resources.
This marked the start of India’s journey in population stabilization and reproductive health initiatives, as documented by Kathleen D. McCarthy in her paper ‘From Government to Grassroots Reform: the Ford Foundation’s Population Programmes in South Asia, 1959-1981′.
This Independence Day is an occasion to explore our demographic journey.
We’ve come a long way: From 1947 to the present, India’s population has surged from about 340 million to over 1.4 billion, while the world population has grown from 2.5 billion in 1947 to around 8 billion in 2024.
Several factors have contributed to this growth, including advances in healthcare that reduced mortality rates, improvements in agricultural productivity, and socio-economic policies that lifted millions out of poverty.
However, this growth also brought challenges, such as pressure on resources, infrastructure and social services.
Today, India’s population trends are vastly different from those in 1947. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime, has steadily declined over the decades, from an average of 5.9 children per woman in the 1950s to 2.0 in 2019-21, according to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5).
India’s approach to population stabilization has been voluntary and empowerment-based, aligning with the principles of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD)—a landmark event held in Cairo in 1994 that redefined population policies worldwide, emphasizing the importance of reproductive health and women’s empowerment.
Key government initiatives have played a significant role in its success.
The decline in fertility rates in India is also a testament to the success of Indian women in realizing their aspirations and empowering themselves to take their own health and fertility decisions.
Empowered women tend to have fewer children, better health outcomes for themselves and their families, and higher levels of economic productivity.
Education plays a crucial role in this empowerment. Women with education are more likely to have access to information about reproductive health and family planning, and they are more likely to use contraception effectively.
The gender dividend: Despite the progress, there is an unfinished agenda. More than 9% of women of reproductive age (about 24 million) experience an unmet need for contraception, as reported by NFHS-5 (2019-21). Addressing this is essential to empower women and achieve sustainable population growth.
Despite India’s large young population in the reproductive age group, female sterilization continues to be the predominant method of contraception, with limited uptake of spacing methods. In addition, there is limited uptake of male contraceptive methods, placing the burden of family planning almost entirely on women.
The UN’s World Population Prospects report projects that India’s population will peak at 1.7 billion in the early 2060s before beginning a gradual decline. While we will have a large young population for some time to come, the proportion of the elderly in our population is growing steadily.
India must focus on leveraging the brief window of its demographic dividend, where the working-age population outnumbers dependents, to drive economic growth.
India’s demographic dividend is characterized by its 370-million-strong young population (aged 10 to 24). By channeling investments into health, education and skilling, India can harness this dividend.
This approach not only addresses domestic needs but also positions India as a critical player in the global labour market, which is experiencing shifts due to varying population dynamics.
As fertility rates decrease, women have more opportunities to engage in the workforce. By investing in women’s education and skills, this transition can generate a “gender dividend” akin to the demographic dividend.
The silver dividend: The UNFPA’s India Ageing Report 2023 highlights that by 2050, 20% of India’s population will be over 60 years old. Investments in social and health infrastructure are essential to support the elderly, which will ensure that India also benefits from a ‘silver dividend.’
Contrasting Nehru’s foresight, today’s scenario reveals a concerning gap in recognizing population trends. The delay in a national census, a critical tool for demographic planning, hampers the ability to make informed policy decisions.
Instead of leveraging data to drive policy, there is a tendency to use population growth as an excuse for poor governance and blame particular communities.
We need independence from myths and prejudices and a return to data and evidence.
To achieve sustainable growth and development, India must focus on strategic investments in young people, women and girls, prepare for an ageing population, and address inter-regional socioeconomic disparities.
The potential for the three dividends—demographic, gender and silver—should guide our policymaking to realize the vision of a Viksit Bharat and ensure that the country’s demographic changes become a catalyst for progress.
Poonam Muttreja is executive director of Population Foundation of India.
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